Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.1% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The projections expect Derek Carr to throw 36.9 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league vs. the Patriots defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Saints O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
With an awful ratio of only 0.50 per game (14th percentile), Derek Carr stands among the bottom TD throwers in the NFL this year.
The Patriots defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 0.75 per game this year.
The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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