Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
Derek Carr has been among the best touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.47 per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (71.9%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 10th-least passing TDs in football: 1.26 per game since the start of last season.

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