Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
At the present time, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (54.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Saints.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
The Panthers defense has yielded the 9th-fewest passing touchdowns in the league: 1.17 per game this year.

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