Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Raiders have been the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 67.1% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
Derek Carr's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 60.6%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the Houston Texans defense this year (62.0%).
The Houston Texans defense has yielded the 5th-least passing TDs in the NFL: 0.80 per game this year.

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