Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Raiders rank as the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 69.0% red zone pass rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 39.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Derek Carr's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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