Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+152/-213).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -213.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% red zone pass rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Derek Carr has been among the top touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 1.64 per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 4th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.71 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks project as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 61.3%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in football against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.6%).

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