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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.4% red zone pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Derek Carr's passing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.9% to 61.9%.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.8%).

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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