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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders have been the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 66.2% red zone pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Derek Carr has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Derek Carr has been among the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 1.64 per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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