Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+167/-227).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
Derek Carr's throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.5%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the NFL against the Denver Broncos defense this year (66.6%).
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 0.67 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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