Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 39.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.