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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Saints being an enormous 7-point favorite in this week's contest.

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Saints are predicted by the projections to run 66.0 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

This year, the porous Panthers run defense has surrendered a whopping 175.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the worst in the NFL.

The Carolina defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In this week's contest, Derek Carr is expected by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 3rd-fewest carries among all QBs with 1.8.

Comprising just 4.8% of his offense's rush attempts this year (21st percentile among quarterbacks), Derek Carr's lack of mobility makes him no threat on the ground.

Derek Carr has generated a measly 5.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the league among QBs (17th percentile).

Derek Carr's running effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a mere 3.27 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.30 figure last year.

With an atrocious rate of 0.27 yards-after-contact (24th percentile), Derek Carr stands as one of the weakest rushing QBs in football this year.

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