Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NBA Season Tips Off Soon — Don’t Miss the Action! 🏀 2d 13:05:33 🏀 SUBSCRIBE NOW

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (43.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New Orleans Saints.
The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (125 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The model projects Derek Carr to garner 1.5 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-fewest out of all QBs.
Derek Carr is not much of a runner and has accounted for a mere 3.9% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 22nd percentile when it comes to QBs.