Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (10.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Derek Carr has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Derek Carr's rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, averaging 6.80 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.73 mark last season.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 0.79 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 17th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 4th-best DE corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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