Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.9% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Derek Carr has run for significantly more yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Derek Carr's ground effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 7.53 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.73 figure last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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