Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (10.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
Derek Carr has run for a lot more yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Derek Carr's running effectiveness has gotten better this year, averaging 8.18 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.73 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to total 2.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.

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