Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (9.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.4% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to total 2.0 carries this week, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has grinded out a measly 6.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (21st percentile).

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