Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (7.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Derek Carr's running effectiveness has gotten better this season, totaling 6.54 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.73 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to earn 1.9 rush attempts this week, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Derek Carr has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 0.65 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 100 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

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