Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (7.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.2% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Derek Carr's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 6.54 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.73 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.79 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to total 1.8 rush attempts this week, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Derek Carr has been among the worst QBs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.65 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 15th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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