Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 3:31 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (7.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.6% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in run blocking.
Derek Carr's rushing efficiency has been refined this season, compiling 6.82 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.73 mark last season.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to garner 1.8 rush attempts in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has been among the worst QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.73 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 18th percentile.

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