Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (9.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (143 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to accumulate 2.3 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has picked up just 6.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in the league among quarterbacks (24th percentile).