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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 214.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 223.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 214.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this contest, Derek Carr is anticipated by the projections to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.7.

With a stellar 7.73 adjusted yards-per-target (81st percentile) this year, Derek Carr rates among the best per-play quarterbacks in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (56.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season.

Opposing teams have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 201.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Falcons defense has yielded the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing offenses: a mere 4.7 YAC.

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