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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 219.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 217.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 219.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Derek Carr is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have the 10th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.1.

This year, the deficient Rams defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a monstrous 8.54 yards.

This year, the feeble Rams defense has given up the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a massive 5.50 YAC.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 56.7% pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Derek Carr's 196.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a remarkable regression in his passing proficiency over last year's 221.0 mark.

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