Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 19, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 238.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 239.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 238.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Derek Carr to attempt 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Derek Carr's 212.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a a meaningful regression in his throwing ability over last season's 237.0 rate.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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