Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 214.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 224.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 62.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the New Orleans Saints to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Saints have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Derek Carr is expected by the model to have the 4th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.2.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Derek Carr's 190.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a a material regression in his passing proficiency over last year's 237.0 rate.
The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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