Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 213.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 211.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The projections expect Derek Carr to throw 36.9 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league vs. the Patriots defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Saints O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Derek Carr's 185.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season conveys a an impressive decline in his throwing talent over last season's 237.0 figure.
Derek Carr's 5.97 adjusted yards-per-target this season signifies a a noteable reduction in his passing effectiveness over last season's 7.1% figure.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 8th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 216.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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