Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 247.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.37 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
Derek Carr has passed for many fewer yards per game (227.0) this year than he did last year (258.0).
Derek Carr's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 62.1%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.