Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 261.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 261.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has attempted 37.0 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 87th percentile among QBs.
Derek Carr has been among the best passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 262.0 yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.99 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Derek Carr's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.2%.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-least yards in football (just 212.0 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the league versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.2%).

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