Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 217.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.18 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks project as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has passed for many fewer yards per game (237.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
Derek Carr's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 61.3%.