Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 246.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derek Carr has thrown for many fewer yards per game (236.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).
Derek Carr's passing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.9% to 61.9%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.8%).

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