Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-152/+117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 247.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 249.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.4 throws per game this year, grading out in the 75th percentile among QBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 4th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Derek Carr has thrown for significantly fewer yards per game (243.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
Derek Carr's passing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 62.0%.

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