Derek Carr Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Pass Attempts

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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