Derek Carr Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 8, 2024 2:31 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-145/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Kansas City's defense profiles as the worst in football this year as it relates to inducing interceptions, accumulating just 0.23 per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The model projects Derek Carr to throw 32.7 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Kansas City's CB corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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