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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Completions
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this contest, Derek Carr is anticipated by the projections to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (56.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the league vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

The Falcons safeties project as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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