Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Completions

New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Saints being a -3-point underdog in this game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
With a remarkable 67.8% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Derek Carr ranks as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers project as the 6th-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-focused team in football (57.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
At the moment, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (68.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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