Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Completions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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