Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Completions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
Derek Carr's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 60.6%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the Houston Texans defense this year (62.0%).
The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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