Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Completions

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+111/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.5 throws per game this year, grading out in the 76th percentile among QBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derek Carr's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 61.7%.
The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized play action on just 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.