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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Carries
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused team in football (44.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Saints.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The model projects Derek Carr to total 1.4 rush attempts this week, on average: the fewest among all QBs.

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Kansas City's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 5th-best in football.

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