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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (43.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New Orleans Saints.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The model projects Derek Carr to garner 1.5 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-fewest out of all QBs.

Derek Carr is not much of a runner and has accounted for a mere 3.9% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 22nd percentile when it comes to QBs.

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