Deon Jackson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Deon Jackson

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Deon Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+231/-363).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -349 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -363.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (54.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most TDs in football (1.00 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts have been the 9th-least run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 34.1% red zone run rate.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.