Denzel Mims Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Denzel Mims

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Denzel Mims Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Denzel Mims has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense, posting a Target Share of just 5.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers.
The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Denzel Mims has been among the worst wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging just 0.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among WRs.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.5%).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.