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Denzel Mims Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Denzel Mims has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense, posting a Target Share of just 5.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers.The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.Denzel Mims has been among the weakest pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a mere 14.0 yards per game while checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs.The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.5%).The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
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