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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Demario Douglas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

With a stellar 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (75th percentile) this year, Demario Douglas stands among the leading WRs in the game in football.

Demario Douglas's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 64.1% to 78.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Los Angeles's unit has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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