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Demario Douglas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+130).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Patriots are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.Demario Douglas is positioned as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.Demario Douglas's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 64.1% to 77.4%.When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 29.16 seconds per play, the projections expect the New England Patriots as the 4th-slowest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Los Angeles Rams, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (58.6%) versus wideouts this year (58.6%).
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