Demario Douglas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Demario Douglas

NFL · Player Props

Demario Douglas

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Demario Douglas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
This week, Demario Douglas is projected by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.9 targets.
The projections expect Demario Douglas to be much less involved in his team's pass game in this game (6.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of CBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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