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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

Demario Douglas's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 64.1% to 78.9%.

With an exceptional 5.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (85th percentile) this year, Demario Douglas stands among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football in picking up extra yardage.

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (156.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

After totaling 44.0 air yards per game last season, Demario Douglas has seen a big decline this season, now averaging 27.0 per game.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Los Angeles's unit has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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