Demario Douglas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Demario Douglas

NFL · Player Props

Demario Douglas

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The predictive model expects Demario Douglas to garner 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The leading projections forecast Demario Douglas to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this contest (20.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played).
This year, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 203.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the most in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas rates as one of the top WRs in the league in the NFL in the open field.

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