Demario Douglas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Demario Douglas

NFL · Player Props

Demario Douglas

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
This week, Demario Douglas is projected by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.9 targets.
The projections expect Demario Douglas to be much less involved in his team's pass game in this game (6.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).
This year, the poor New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 183.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-worst in football.
The New York Giants pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Demario Douglas checks in as one of the weakest wideouts in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.

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