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Demarcus Robinson

Demarcus Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams

Demarcus Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.

At only 28.08 seconds per play, the Los Angeles Rams offense is positioned as the 9th-fastest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.

Demarcus Robinson has been less involved as a potential target this season (89.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (43.2%).

This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a massive 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Demarcus Robinson's receiving talent has diminished this season, totaling just 2.4 adjusted catches vs 3.4 last season.

Demarcus Robinson's 53.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a substantial diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 70.2% rate.

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