Demarcus Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to use backup QB Tyler Huntley in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Demarcus Robinson has been a more integral piece of his team's pass game this season (14.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.1%).
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Demarcus Robinson's pass-catching performance improved this season, averaging 3.0 yards per game compared to just 1.7 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60%) to WRs this year (60.0%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.